Global Shift On The Way For Major Economies

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A powerful global shift will move the major economies to emerging and frontier markets over the next 35 years, investors are warned.

China is tipped to become the world’s largest economy by 2030, before growth slips to match the global average in the long-term.

India is also likely to move into second place, vying with the US, which is forecast to drop to third place.

Between them, these three countries will have a 48% slice of world GDP, with 20% going to China and the remaining two taking around 14% each.

Upcoming economies such as Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria are likely to displace Britain and France.

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Other countries likely to rise in the world economic rankings are The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, while Colombia and Poland are expected to outstrip Brazil and Russia by 2050.

Declining population

Former economic powerhouse Japan is likely to drop from the world’s third largest economy to seventh by 2050 due to a declining population.

The Eurozone is also predicted to face hard times, with growth unlikely to exceed 1.5% a year by 2050.

The report The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue? serves as a warning to investors, explain PwC economists.

The conclusions are drawn from examining economic data from 32 countries that generate 84% of global GDP.

The good news for investors is the world economy will continue to grow – by 3% a year on average.

PwC Chief Economist John Hawksworth, one of the report writers, said: “Economies can be compared in different ways, but which ever method is applied, China always comes out on top.

No guarantees

“But after 2050, we expect a slowdown as the population ages. The economy will also have to switch from copying other manufacturers to innovation to compete.

“High growth does not last forever. Japan and South Korea are testament to that and we see no reason why China should be any different.”

For investors and businesses, the report argues developed economies in Europe and North America still have several decades of life left in them – even though growth may only average 2%.

Looking to emerging or frontier economies will give better growth, but the risk is higher because of less institutional regulation.

“Economic and geopolitical problems in Brazil and Russia demonstrate rapid growth is not guaranteed for emerging economies unless they also benefit from sustained and effective investment in infrastructure and improving political, economic, legal and social institutions,” said Hawksworth.

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