The moneymen are already placing their bets on the UK general election, but the ups and downs of the stock market show that the result is just too close to call.
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No party won a workable majority in the last election, leading to the shotgun wedding of the Tories and Lib Dems that seems to have not worked too badly for the past five years.
No doubt there have been some domestic disputes behind the scenes after David Cameron and Nick Clegg were forced into the unlikely union, but to their credit they have managed the economy back to somewhat of a recovery.
The question for expats, though, is what is likely to happen this time around, and how will the result affect interest rates and investments?
Of course, no one knows, but the pundits are betting another close run thing with the days of majorities seen by Thatcher and Blair behind us.
No party has had a major leadership challenge, so we can expect Miliband, Cameron and Clegg to line up against each other, with UKIP playing an irritating supporting role running interference.
Interest rates are likely to remain on hold at 0.5% until after the election, on May 7, 2015.
The FTSE and Sterling will slip up and down according to polls, statements by the major parties and fears that Labour may get their hands on The Treasury and send the nation back into a debt spiral.
But the biggest question will be what will happen about Britain’s membership of the European Union?
Cameron has promised a referendum if the Tories win – were not quite sure whether that means get back into power as part of a coalition as well.
The uncertainty of a referendum is what will hit the markets worst, just as the FTSE and pound dived before the Scottish vote in September.
The smart money is on another coalition, but whether the blushing Lib Dems will go with Labour or stick with the Tories is yet to be seen.
Clegg is hedging his bets and wants to keep a hand on the tiller of state regardless of the General election outcome, even though he knows the Lib Dems will struggle into third place.
The pundits want a Tory win – they have seen the results so far and believe they can deliver again.
Miliband is unconvincing leadership material, while Cameron and Osborne are more matter-of-fact business people.
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